Stress test based on Oliver Wyman in Bank of Spain: an evaluation

Abstract

This paper, based on econometric techniques, has done a study to improve the predictions of the stress test, concerning the estimation of impairment losses. The main results obtained are: 1) the impact of the explanatory variables on the impairment loss is different at stages of growth, compared to times of recession; 2) there is a certain inertia of the dependent variable, but this inertia is different in intensity, and even the sign in the growth stages concerning the stages of recession; 3) of the explanatory variables, nominal GDP and equity are those that have a greater impact on the impairment loss; 4) finally, the two dummy variables that assess the impact of adjustment to market value of assets in the process of mergers and acquisitions that occurred in 2010, and regulatory changes implemented in 2012, have been statistically significant and with the expected signs. Keywords: econometric techniques, financial crisis, financial markets, risks. JEL Classification: G21, G32, G17