Risk analysis using meteorological weather factors in solar energy conversion systems

Abstract

We propose a methodology for conducting simulations of operational scenarios for energy projects based on photovoltaic generation systems. It considers several documented facts about time series of weather, such as strong seasonality and structural breaks, which the previous literature has not explored in depth. Our proposal uses public weather time series, which are usually recorded by meteorological observatories. This makes our approach a suitable strategy for any firm interested in applying it to its own data and projects. This approach also allows the user to set an appropriate level of confidence for the scenarios depending on her interests.

Keywords

• photovoltaic systems
• horizontal solar radiation
• structural breakpoints
• renewable energy sources
• risk measurement