Forecasting and evaluation for raisin export in turkey

Abstract

Turkey is the world's second largest raisin producer after the United States and the leading exporter, accounting to 25% of the world's total raisin production and 40–45% of total raisin exports. The European Union is the top export destination for Turkish raisins receiving an average of 80 percent of all Turkish raisin exports. The main objective of the study is to forecast Turkey's raisin export. A time series modeling approach (Double Exponential Smoothing) has been used to forecast raisin export in Turkey. The forecasts for the export of raisin in Turkey have been made for the next five years using by annual data on 1982–2015 years in this study. The forecast results have shown that the raisin export in Turkey will be around 209,738 tons in 2016.