A weather-based power distribution system reliability assessment

Abstract

The continuity of power supply is affected by many factors; the weather conditions to which power system components are exposed are considered the most effect. A new methodology to assess the reliability of distribution system considering the impact of different weather conditions is presented in this paper. The proposed method considers possible future changes in the weather patterns that might occur differently from what it was in the past. Modified sets of reliability indices are presented for mathematically predicting reliability performance based on historical reliability data under specific past weather conditions combined with forecasted future weather conditions. The proposed method is applied to the distribution system components of RBTS; the results demonstrate the significance of considering the forecast of weather conditions in reliability assessment.

Keywords

• Distribution systems
• Predictive reliability assessment
• Weather forecast