Global threat forecast 2019

Abstract

The global terrorist and extremist threat is likely to persist in 2019 as the Islamic State (IS) go through a phase of re-adaptation and de-centralisation. The group has established clandestine and underground structures to survive in Iraq and Syria. Its ideology is still intact and continues to be propagated in cyber space. In the provinces, groups, networks and cells which have pledged allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi are radicalising Muslims and conducting attacks. Harnessing both the physical and virtual space, IS continues to present an enduring threat worldwide. Although the apex of IS leadership and many of the directing figures are on the run and might be eliminated in 2019, the penultimate leadership enabling the fight and supporting the infrastructure will continue to operate in the shadows as they become agile and more cunning. The IS and Al Qaeda-centric threats are likely to remain given the lack of an effective global counter terrorism plan and strategy, the continuance of superpower and geopolitical rivalry, and the failure to resolve the underlying causes of extremism and terrorism.

Keywords

• Islamic State
• Al Qaeda
• Counter terrorism
• Afghanistan
• Pakistan
• Communal clashes
• Ideology
• Clandestine networks
• US military withdrawals