The role of proactive behavior on COVID-19 infordemic in the Chinese Sina-Microblog: a modeling study

Abstract

In order to avoid forming an information cocoon, the information propagation of COVID-19 is usually created through the action of "proactive search", an important behavior other than "reactive follow". This behavior has been largely ignored in modeling information dynamics. Here, we propose to fill in this gap by proposing a proactive-reactive susceptible-discussing-immune (PR-SFI) model to describe the patterns of co-propagation on social networks. This model is based on the forwarding quantity and takes into account both proactive search and reactive follow behaviors. The PR-SFI model is parameterized by data fitting using real data of COVID-19 related topics in the Chinese Sina-Microblog, and the model is calibrated and validated using the prediction accuracy of the accumulated forwarding users. Our sensitivity analysis and numerical experiments provide insights about optimal strategies for public health emergency information dissemination.

Keywords

• chinese sina-microblog
• active search-reactive follow
• information propagation model