Sustainable Supplier Selection of Refined Products under Risk and Options Contract using Conditional Value at Risk

Abstract

Considering the importance of selecting suppliers based on the dimensions of sustainability in the supply chain, after identifying and selecting sustainability and risk criteria in accordance with Jey Oil Refining Company, by developing a multi-stage stochastic program and creating a risk constraint by the CVaR risk value criterion for quantitative criteria. Also, in terms of points calculated by FTOPSIS and FMEA methods for quality criteria, the optimal selection of suppliers, sourcing strategy and order allocation in a multi-period supply chain planning under operational risk and disruption were discussed. In order to reduce supply risk and achieve a flexible planning as a mitigation strategy, the option contract and the trading market were considered as two options to supply raw materials. The product demand, the market price of the materials, the purchase price and the apply price of the option contract, the supply quantity and the supply quantity of the option contract are random. To model uncertainty, discrete scenarios are generated through a simulation approach, and then, a scenario reduction method is used to construct a scenario tree. The application of the stochastic model, the performance of risk measurement policies, and the importance of mitigation strategies to provide some managerial insights have been investigated.

Keywords

• sustainable supply chain
• risk management
• fmea
• cvar
• multi-stage stochastic programming
• option contract