Analysis of economic and mathematical tools for modeling and forecasting indicators of indicators of the state budget execution and macroeconomic indicators

Abstract

This article describes the existing economic and mathematical tools for budget execution modeling and forecasting and macroeconomic indicators. Also it gives a possibility to draw out alternative scenarios of the state budget performance and macroeconomic indicators of dynamics. Directly examined and compared econometric methods that are common in the practice of modeling and forecasting financial activities; regulatory balance (input-output model); expert systems, among which are systems based on fuzzy logic; artificial neural network; simulations (Monte Carlo, system-dynamic modeling); model of general economic equilibrium. These economic-mathematical methods could be used for the monitoring of Ukraine state budget and analysis of the statistical indicators, and their values` forecasting.

Keywords

• показники виконання державного бюджету
• економіко-математичні моделі
• моніторинг
• прогнозування
• макроекономічні показники
• економічний розвиток