Construction and verification of the prediction model for risk of sleep disturbance in elderly patients with hypertension: a cross-sectional survey based on NHANES database from 2005 to 2018

Abstract

Abstract Objective To construct and verify a risk prediction model for sleep disturbance in elderly patients with hypertension, aiming to offer guidance for sleep management in this demographic. Methods A cohort of 6,708 elderly hypertensive patients from the NHANES database, spanning 2005 to 2018, met the inclusion criteria and were selected for this study. Participants were randomly assigned to a development group (n = 4,696) and a verification group (n = 2,012) in a 7:3 ratio. The occurrence of sleep disturbance was assessed across the subjects. Independent risk factors for sleep disturbance were analyzed using weighted multivariate logistic regression within the development group. A predictive model for sleep disturbance risk in elderly hypertensive patients was developed and verified using Stata 17.0. The model's predictive accuracy and stability were evaluated using the verification group's data. Results Of the 6,708 subjects, 2,014 (30.02%) were identified with sleep disturbance, and the weighted prevalence of sleep disturbance among elderly hypertensive patients was 33.283%. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analysis in the development group revealed that six factors were independently associated with sleep disturbance: higher total depression scores, higher education level, asthma, overweight, arthritis, and work restriction (OR > 1 and P < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the nomogram prediction model was 0.709 in the development group and 0.707 in the verification group, indicating good discrimination ability. Brier scores for the nomogram model were 0.185 in the development group and 0.189 in the verification group, both below 0.25, suggesting good calibration. Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) determined that the nomogram's clinical net benefit was maximized when the threshold probability for sleep disturbance in elderly hypertensive patients was 0.13–0.67 in the development group and 0.14–0.61 in the verification group, highlighting the model's clinical utility. Limitations This study is not without its limitations, including issues with data collection, the absence of external validation, and the non-extrapolation of results. Conclusion The prevalence of sleep disturbance among elderly hypertensive patients stands at 33.283%. The nomogram model, based on identified risk factors for sleep disturbance in this population, has demonstrated good predictive efficiency and clinical relevance. It serves as a valuable tool to assist healthcare providers in identifying elderly hypertensive patients at high risk for sleep disturbance.

Keywords

• Advanced age
• Hypertension
• Sleep disturbance
• NHANES database
• Nomogram