Managing risks of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Egypt

Abstract

Egypt depends on the Nile River to secure 95% of the water needed for different purposes as drinking, household uses, agriculture, fishing source, water transportation, tourism, electricity generation from the High Dam and industry. Although, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is essential to Ethiopia’s development, many research pointed out its negative impact on Egypt. Although previous researches addressed the problem of GERD using stochastic data, they used deterministic methods. This paper aims to use a stochastic method to assess risks of GERD on Egypt, and propose strategies to mitigate these risks. Management actions and policies are proposed to manage fresh water resources and mitigate GERD risks. The study concluded that the expected amount of saved water using proposed strategies exceeds the expected losses caused by GERD by 12.1 Billion m3. Adopting the suggested strategies could reduce or eliminate the impact of GERD on Egypt. Keywords: Risk, Risk mitigation, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Nile River, Water saving strategies, Egypt