International Passenger Traffic at the Hellenic Airports: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Mid-Term Forecasting

Abstract

The aviation industry in the COVID-19 pandemic era (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen) is practically starting from scratch as significant losses have been recorded since the outbreak in December 2019. This paper focuses on the study of the available historical operational data (provisional and final) of international passenger traffic to and from the Hellenic airports. The data originated from the official state statistics agency (Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority, HCAA). A forecasting model was developed to provide an estimation of the international passenger traffic at the Hellenic airports from August to December 2021. Through this analysis, the severe impact of two lockdown events and how they will affect the expected recovery rate of air travel is demonstrated. From this perspective, some first conclusions can be drawn about the expected recovery of international air travel to the growth rates of the 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Hellenic airports
• international passenger traffic
• time series forecasting