Load forecasting for energy communities: a novel LSTM-XGBoost hybrid model based on smart meter data

Abstract

Abstract Accurate day-ahead load forecasting is an important task in smart energy communities, as it enables improved energy management and operation of flexibilities. Smart meter data from individual households within the communities can be used to improve such forecasts. In this study, we introduce a novel hybrid bi-directional LSTM-XGBoost model for energy community load forecasting that separately forecasts the general load pattern and peak loads, which are later combined to a holistic forecasting model. The hybrid model outperforms traditional energy community load forecasting based on standard load profiles as well as LSTM-based forecasts. Furthermore, we show that the accuracy of energy community day-ahead forecasts can be significantly improved by using smart meter data as additional input features.

Keywords

• Smart grids
• Day-ahead forecasting
• Energy communities
• Long short-term memory neural networks
• XGBoost