Sources of China’s Fossil Energy-Use Change

Abstract

Technology improvement related to energy conservation and energy mix low-carbonization is a critical approach for tackling global warming in China. Therefore, we attempt to identify the technology factors of China’s energy consumption change between 2007 and 2012, when China’s economy started slowing. This study proposes a new refined structural decomposition analysis (SDA) based on a hybrid multi-regional input⁻output (MRIO) model. The technology factors are expressed through the energy input level effect, energy composition effect, and non-energy input effect. We find that the energy level effect was the primary driver for energy reduction, saving 1205 million tonnes of standard coal equivalent (Mtce) of energy, while 520 Mtce was offset by energy composition and non-energy input effects. The sector analysis shows that the energy input level, energy composition, and non-energy input effects of electricity, the chemical industry, and metallurgy are noteworthy. In addition, the sector contribution to energy-use change, by province, related to the three effects, is also studied. From these results, we propose policy suggestions for further energy saving, in order to achieve China’s energy target through technology improvements by the higher priority contributors identified.

Keywords

• hybrid MRIO
• SDA
• energy saving
• energy composition
• China