Predictability of the Most Long‐Lived Tropical Cyclone Freddy (2023) During Its Westward Journey Through the Southern Tropical Indian Ocean

Abstract

Abstract This study aimed to explore the predictability of the most long‐lived tropical cyclone (TC) Freddy in 2023 while it traversed westward across the southern tropical Indian Ocean during the first 18 days of its existence. Global ensemble forecasts revealed southward track deflection and intensity underestimation of Freddy. We identified three key factors contributing to the limited predictability of Freddy, which are associated with the Mascarene High, Storm Dingani, and Freddy itself. The large track errors of Freddy can be attributed to the underestimated strength of the Mascarene High, the more northeastern position of Dingani, and the presence of excessively large or small sizes of Freddy. These findings were further validated through a high‐resolution regional model. Specifically, Freddy's track and intensity most closely matched the observations when these three factors were most closely represented. It underscores the pivotal role played by the interaction between TCs and multi‐scale systems in TC forecasts.

Keywords

• tropical cyclone
• forecast
• southern tropical Indian Ocean