Does climate change affect price of vegetables: Evidence from Tigrai, Northern most Ethiopia

Abstract

Although the agriculture economic sector in Ethiopia yet feeds enormous people, it's negatively impacted by climate change thereby contributed to the lower production and productivity. The research dealt therefore on the price effect of climate change on vegetable using time series data collected from 2009 to 2015 in Tigrai, Ethiopia. A univariate econometric analysis and finite distributed lag model were employed. In the descriptive part, due to climate change; tomato the vital vegetable consumed both in urban and rural population has recorded the highest inflation (211 percent) from 2009 to 2015 alone as compared to potato and onion. Whereas, potato and onion vegetables were rose up more than 152 and 154 percent consecutively on the same period. The average temperature increase of 1oC over the past seven years caused the price of tomato vegetable to increase more than threefold (310 percent) in 2015. Likewise, in the year 2010 as the temperature increased by 1oC, the average price of tomato increased close to 155 percent, ceteris paribus. Even the price of tomato vegetables raised 118 percent in 2011 as compared to 2009. In 2013 and 2014, a 1oC rise in the average temperature cause close to 58 percent and 23 percent increase in the price of tomato, ceteris paribus. Moreover, the price increment of potato and onion vegetables is high. So as to get healthy vegetables often at fair prices both by the poor and rich in both the rural and urban population, applying outstanding climate adaptive strategies is recommendable.

Keywords

• Climate Change
• Temperature
• Time series
• Tigrai
• Vegetables Price