Classification of agricultural priority and reserved areas in Brandenburg under consideration of bio-economic climate simulations

Abstract

Ensuring a crisis-proof food supply has become a key political issue. In Germany, official spatial planning allows the use of priority and reserved areas to secure land for agricultural use and regional food supply. The focus should be particularly on climate-resilient areas that also have a stable yield potential in the future. This paper supplements widely used, static approaches for determining priority and reserved areas with a dynamic bio-economic analysis that takes future climate scenarios into account. The results for the German federal state of Brandenburg show a high area equivalence between the static and dynamic approaches. In the case of data gaps, for example, static approaches such as soil quality indices can serve as an adequate proxy for future yield potentials. However, not all climate-robust areas can be classified as potential reserved or priority areas. Furthermore, areas that show low yield potential under future conditions are not released for other land uses. Feedback from stakeholders involved in the study showed that the use of the dynamic approach and a target value using the results of a foodshed model lead to broad acceptance. The method developed here can make a valuable contribution to climate change adaptation in spatial planning instruments.

Keywords

• Climate resilient agriculture
• spatial planning
• regional planning
• economic resilience
• bioeconomic analysis
• peatland conservation