A leader-followers game of emergency preparedness for adverse events

Abstract

Natural disasters occur across the globe, resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year. Effective preparation before a disaster can help to minimize damages, economic impact, and loss of human life. This paper uses a game theory framework to set up a leader-followers model for resource distribution to several geographic zones before an adverse event. The researchers model population members who may choose to prepare in advance of an event by acquiring supplies, whereas others may wait until the last minute. Failure to prepare in advance could result in a significant loss due to the chance that supplies may no longer be available. Numerical simulations are run to determine how the leader should distribute supplies to maximize the preparedness of the overall population. It was found that population size is a significant factor for supply distribution, but the behaviour of individuals within a zone is also important. Much of the current resource allocation research focuses on the logistics and economics of supply distribution, but this paper demonstrates that social aspects should also be considered.