Testing weak form efficiency on the capital markets in Serbia

Abstract

Weak-form efficient market hypothesis assumes that participants on the financial markets are not able to achieve above-average returns based on historical prices. In order to establish the presence of a weak-form market efficiency in the Serbian market, the analysis incorporates daily data of the two most prominent indices on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, BELEX 15 and BELEX LINE, since their inception until 31 December 2014. Results obtained by the analysis and testing indicate that the capital market in Serbia can not be considered sufficiently efficient, more precisely it indicates that postulates assumed by the weak-form market efficiency are not fully met. Taking into account that the capital market in Serbia is still underdeveloped, primarily because of the small volumes, turnover and types of securities which are traded on the market, as well as the fact that it is not sufficiently regulated and transparent, lack of investors is noticeable. Consequently, analysis presented in this paper indicates a weak sustainability of the efficient market hypothesis in Serbia.

Keywords

• Weak-form efficient market hypothesis
• financial markets
• Belgrade Stock Exchange
• BELEX 15
• BELEX LINE
• Semi-strong form of efficiency
• Strong form market efficiency