Prediction of Climatic Productivity of Vegetation Based on SSPs Path

Abstract

The natural environment of the three provinces and regions of Shaanxi， Gansu and Ningxia is complex and diverse.The ecological environment is fragile， and is sensitive to climate change.In the background of global climate change， the study on the climate production potential of vegetation plays a positive role in the production distribution and ecosystem management of agriculture， forestry and animal husbandry in this region.This paper selects the simulated data of temperature and precipitation of SSP126， SSP245 and SSP585 in the BCC-CSM2-MR model of Shaanxi， Gansu and Ningxia from 2025 to 2100， and uses the Thornthwaite Memorial model to calculate the change characteristics and driving mechanism of the future vegetation climate production potential in the study area.The results show that most areas of Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province maintain the climatic characteristics of "warm and humid" development in the historical period from 2025 to 2100.Compared to the base period， the increment of vegetation climatic productivity potential was concentrated in 10%~40% （SSP126）， 10%~30% （SSP245） and 10%~56.1% （SSP585）， respectively.The vegetation climate production potential in northern Shaanxi shows a downward trend under the SSP126 path， while the vegetation climate production potential in Shaanxi shows an increasing trend under the SSP245 and SSP585 paths， and the increasing trend is the strongest in northern Shaanxi.In Shaanxi Province， compared with the base period in most areas under the SSP126 and SSP245 paths increased by 5%~10%， and that under the SSP585 path increased by 10%~20%.The climate of Ningxia Hui Autonomous region develops to "warm and dry type" under SSP126 path， and the vegetation climate production potential in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region shows a downward trend.On the contrary， the climatic production potential of vegetation in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region increases significantly under SSP245 and SSP585 path.The anomaly of vegetation climate production potential in the whole region increased by 10%~30% under the SSP585 path and 0~20% under the SSP245 path.From the point of view of the driving mechanism， there are two driving types of vegetation climate production potential in the three provinces of Shaanxi， Gansu and Ningxia， which are "precipitation-driven" and "temperature-precipitation-driven".The vegetation climate production potential in the study area is driven by precipitation， which is the main driving force of vegetation climate production potential.

Keywords

• climate production potential of vegetation
• shared socioeconomic pathways （ssps）
• climate change
• three provinces and regions of shaanxi， gansu and ningxia