Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination Timing and Risk Prioritization on Mortality Rates, United States

Abstract

During rollout of coronavirus disease vaccination, policymakers have faced critical trade-offs. Using a mathematical model of transmission, we found that timing of vaccination rollout would be expected to have a substantially greater effect on mortality rate than risk-based prioritization and uptake and that prioritizing first doses over second doses may be lifesaving.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
• viruses
• respiratory infections
• zoonoses