Trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to smoking in the five countries with the highest number of smokers during 1990–2019: an age-period-cohort analysis

Abstract

Introduction Smoking increases the risk of various cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD). This study aimed to assess the impact of age, period, and cohort on long-term trends in IHD mortality in China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and Russia, the five countries with the highest number of smokers, from 1990 to 2019. Material and methods The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the magnitude and direction of trends in smoking-attributable mortality from IHD. Age-period-cohort (APC) studies were used to estimate net drift (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC)s), local drift (age-specific EAPCs), and independent trends in age, period, and cohort effects. Results The analysis revealed a significant downward trend in ASMRs attributable to IHD as a result of smoking in the United States, India, and Russia. Indonesia and China showed an upward trend. Age effects were increasing for both country and sex, with China showing the most significant increase in the older age group; period effects were decreasing in all countries except Indonesia, and cohort effects were increasing only in Indonesia and China. Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, mortality from IHD caused by smoking showed a downward trend in these five countries. However, the pattern of increased mortality from IHD in women caused by smoking warrants further study.

Keywords

• ischemic heart disease
• smoking
• joinpoint regression model
• age-period-cohort analysis