Natural Gas Prices on Three Continents

Abstract

We investigate the pricing formation of natural gas markets on three different continents (Europe, Asia and North America). We find that natural gas markets showed a strong relationship with the crude oil market between 1992 and 2001 and natural gas prices tended to thermal parity with crude oil prices. From 2002 natural gas markets exhibited a less pronounced relationship with the crude oil market and major natural gas markets were severely underpriced compared to crude oil. A globally integrated natural gas market, comparable to the global oil market, has not evolved. The main natural gas markets, however, exhibit some level of integration, especially over a longer time. The European market exhibits the strongest levels of integration, while the North American market exhibits the weakest.

Keywords

• natural gas
• crude oil
• thermal parity