Cryosphere water resources supply function and service in China

Abstract

With global warming and rapid shrinkage of the cryosphere, the decreasing cryosphere water resources (CWR) supply function would weaken its service and then affect local economic development and implement of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the world, but how does the CWR supply affect its service and their variations in the past and future are still not clear at present. In this study, the past dynamics (1960–2020), current situation (2010s) and projected changes (2020–2100) of CWR in China were assessed by calculating the meltwater from glacier, snow cover and the ground ice of permafrost under Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Combined with projected data of population and economy, the CWR service potential was also estimated in the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s under scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5). The annual CWR in China is about 310.7 × 109 m3 in the 2010s, with glacier runoff, snowmelt, and ground ice meltwater accounting for 24.1%, 72.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Under SSP1-RCP2.6, the quantity of CWR was projected to decline by 14%–18% over the next 80 years, and the service potential would reach the peak in 2100. While under SSP5-RCP8.5, CWR would be reduced by 40% by 2100, and the service would gradually decline from 2050. The study of CWR is of great significance for water security, sustainable development and risk avoidance in the arid endorheic region.

Keywords

• Cryosphere water resources
• Glaciers
• Snow cover
• Permafrost
• Function and service