Determinants of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia

Abstract

The aim of this study is to overcome the lack of empirical research dealing with the main factors of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia, analyzing periods of currency crises and creating an early warning system to anticipate the upcoming currency crises. Using econometric analysis, this paper examines the determinants of currency crises episodes during the period from January 2007 to May 2018, and based on this, it makes proposals for economic policy makers. It has been shown that dominant factors are those that bind mostly with the effect of factors from the external environment, which is important in assessing and forecasting potential crises in the Republic of Serbia. More specifically, the obtained results indicate that the overvaluation of the national currency, current account balance as a percentage of GDP, imports and stock exchange index are statistically significant variables.

Keywords

• currency crisis
• early warning system
• EMP index
• probit model