It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways
Sven Teske,
Thomas Pregger,
Sonja Simon,
Tobias Naegler,
Johannes Pagenkopf,
Özcan Deniz,
Bent van den Adel,
Kate Dooley,
Malte Meinshausen
Affiliations
Sven Teske
Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), 235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia
Thomas Pregger
Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Sonja Simon
Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Tobias Naegler
Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Johannes Pagenkopf
Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Özcan Deniz
Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Bent van den Adel
Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Kate Dooley
Australian–German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Malte Meinshausen
Australian–German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.
