Effect of climate change and urbanisation on flood protection decision‐making

Abstract

Abstract The changing climate and the rapid urbanisation may alter flood severity and influence the decision‐making process for flood management. In this study, a Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for optimal decision‐making in flood protection is developed and applied to a central flood‐prone basin of Jakarta, Indonesia. Specifically, the decisions are on levees corresponding to protection under different rainfall return periods (RP), considering climate change and associated uncertainties, urbanisation, and evolving socio‐economic features of the flood plain. Three cases were studied to analyse future (year 2050) conditions (i) future rainfall/current urban, (ii) current rainfall/future urban and (iii) future rainfall/future urban. Future climate change projections from the NASA Earth Exchange are used to obtain information about changes in rainfall, whereas Landsat derived imperviousness maps along with the population projections are used for future urban conditions. Annual Expected Loss, Graduality, upgrade Construction cost and Net‐Socio‐Economic Vulnerability Index are the criteria used in the MCDA. It is found that climate change has a higher impact compared to urbanisation on the flood protection decisions. For the basin studied, the extreme future case of increased rainfall and urbanised conditions have the optimal decision in levee protection level corresponding to 250 years RP under current rainfall which corresponds to ~60 years RP under future rainfall.

Keywords

• annual expected loss
• climate change
• flood protection
• graduality
• MCDA
• urban projections