Economic analysis of exploitation of lunar resources

Abstract

An economic model generally describes the mechanisms used to generate revenue from a business. If it fails to generate income, its failure is inevitable. Therefore, decisions regarding missions are not based solely on technical specifications; economic profitability is also a crucial factor in decision-making and is a primary consideration for commercial investments. This consideration becomes particularly important in high-cost, long-duration projects, such as space missions, where the return on investment and economic justification are more complex. Lunar mining projects are no exception and require a comprehensive financial and technical feasibility assessment approach.To analyze the economic feasibility of any project, it is essential to evaluate its economic model. This paper conducts an economic valuation of lunar mining, focusing on materials available on the Moon, using fuzzy analysis and sensitivity analysis to identify suitable materials for exploitation. The materials are categorized into oxides, metals, and fuels. Using an appropriate economic model for space mining, the study evaluates the economic potential of selling these materials on Earth.Based on the economic feasibility analysis, each group identifies SiO₂, Mg, and helium-3 (3He) as high-priority materials. SiO₂ and Mg are expected to be profitable in conservative scenarios with increased mission duration and frequency. In optimistic scenarios, all three materials could be profitable. Ultimately, SiO₂ is selected as the target material for lunar mining.

Keywords

• moon: moon resources : moon mining: economic analysis : moon economy : exploitation