Renmin Zhujiang (May 2024)
Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint of Water Resources in the Pearl River Delta Region
Abstract
The scarcity and overuse of water resources restrict the sustainable development of many regions. To assess water resources sustainability, this paper conducted a dynamic analysis of water resources sustainability in various cities in the Pearl River Delta region from 2010 to 2022 by using the ecological footprint method of water resources and indicator calculation (economic and ecological coordination of water resources, water resources sustainability, and ecological footprint of water resources per capita at a gross domestic product (GDP) of 10,000 yuan). Additionally, the paper constructed a GM (1,1) gray prediction model to project the future evolution of the ecological footprint of water resources per capita in the region over the next ten years. The findings indicate that the ecological footprint of water resources per capita has decreased in all cities between 2010 and 2022, and Zhongshan City has the most obvious decreasing trend, with a decrease rate of 47.01%. In terms of temporal changes, the carrying capacity of water resources in different cities in the Pearl River Delta region exhibits significant differences and fluctuations. The economic coordination of water resources in Zhaoqing City is poor. The pressure of water resources in Foshan City is great and unsustainable. The ecological footprint of water resources per capita at a GDP of 10,000 yuan shows a decreasing trend over the years, and the ecological footprint of water resources per capita in this region exhibits a stable decreasing trend over the next decade. These research findings can provide decision-making insights for water resources sustainability and mitigation of ecological pressure in this region in the future.
