Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture

Abstract

The agricultural sector is one of the most sensitive to climate change, with potentially significant implications for food security and welfare. Alternative methodological approaches—such as process models, statistical models and integrated assessment models—have been used to estimate climate impacts on agriculture, not always with consistent results. This focus issue intends to shed light on the sign and order of magnitude of agricultural impacts under 2 °C and higher warming levels. This letter synthesizes the set of articles in the focus issue that have been tasked with providing a systematic assessment of how results from these different methodological approaches compare and why they are different. From this synthesis, we offer thoughts on research priorities going forward to fill key voids in the literature on this important topic.

Keywords

• agriculture climate impacts
• process models
• statistical models
• integrated assessment models
• carbon fertilization
• climate adaptation