An Externally Validated Nomogram for Predicting the Overall Survival of Patients With Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma Based on Clinical Characteristics and Systemic Inflammatory Markers

Abstract

Background: Systemic inflammatory indicators are clinically significant in guiding diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) prognosis. However, which inflammatory markers are the best predictors of DLBCL prognosis is still unclear. In this study, we aimed to create a nomogram based on the best inflammatory markers and clinical indicators to predict the overall survival of patients with DLBCL. Patients and methods: We analyzed data from 423 DLBCL patients from two institutions and divided them into a training set, an internal validation set, and an external validation set (n = 228, 97, and 98, respectively). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and Cox regression analysis were used to develop nomograms. We assessed model fit using the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the nomogram's predictive performance and clinical net benefit and compared with the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-IPI. Results: The inclusion variables for the nomogram model were age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lactate dehydrogenase level, the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and β-2 microglobulin (β-2 MG) level. In the training cohort, the nomogram showed better goodness of fit than the IPI and NCCN-IPI. The C-index of the nomogram (0.804, 95% CI: 0.751-0.857) outperformed the IPI (0.690, 95% CI: 0.629-0.751) and NCCN-IPI (0.691, 95% CI: 0.632-0.750). The calibration curve, ROC curve, and DCA curve analysis showed that the nomogram has satisfactory predictive power and clinical utility. Similar results were found in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The nomogram integrated with the clinical characteristics and inflammatory markers is beneficial to predict the prognosis of patients with DLBCL.