Prognostic Value of Combined Detection of Preoperative Albumin-to-Fibrinogen Ratio and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Operable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients without Neoadjuvant Therapy

Abstract

Zhiyuan Zheng,1,2,* Donghong Lin,2,* Qiaoqian Chen,2,* Bin Zheng,1 Mingqiang Liang,1 Chun Chen,1 Wei Zheng1 1Department of Thoracic Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350001, People’s Republic of China; 2Medical Technology and Engineering College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350004, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Wei Zheng; Chun ChenDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No. 29 Xinquan Road, Fuzhou, 350001, People’s Republic of ChinaTel [phone]Fax [phone]Email [email protected]; [email protected]: We retrospectively analyzed the prognostic value of the albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (AFR)–neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) score, comprising preoperative AFR and NLR, in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients after radical resection.Patients and Methods: Overall, 215 patients were included. The optimal cutoff value was determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Based on a low AFR (< 12.06) and high NLR (≥ 1.78), the AFR–NLR score was classified as 2 (both hematological abnormalities present), 1 (one abnormality present), or 0 (both abnormalities absent). Kaplan–Meier curves, Cox regression, and predicted nomogram were used to evaluate the prognostic value of the score.Results: The prognostic value of the AFR–NLR score was better than that of AFR or NLR alone (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that a high AFR–NLR score was an independent predictor of poor prognosis for overall survival (P < 0.001). Additionally, in the nomogram including the AFR–NLR score, the net reclassification improvement index increased by 35.5% (P < 0.001), and the integrated discrimination improvement index increased by 9.0% (P < 0.001). The predictive accuracy of the established nomogram model was proved using Harrell’s concordance index (0.811, 95% confidence interval: 0.765– 0.856) and calibration curve. Notably, the decision analysis curve showed that the nomogram had a higher net benefit within most of the threshold probability range, indicating better clinical applicability.Conclusion: The AFR–NLR score is a useful predictor of the prognosis of ESCC patients after radical resection, and the nomogram established on the basis of this score has a good prognostic value.Keywords: esophageal squamous cell cancer, AFR–NLR score, prognosis, nomogram

Keywords

• esophageal squamous cell cancer
• afr–nlr score
• prognosis
• nomogram