Statistical forewarning models for sucking pests of cotton in Maharashtra

Abstract

Weather-based prediction models for pests (aphids, thrips and leafhoppers) in cotton crop were developed on various aspects viz., crop age at first appearance of pests and maximum population of pests at Akola (Maharashtra). Historical data from 1997-98 to 2010-11 on population of aphids, thrips and leafhoppers along with weekly weather data (two weeks before sowing) were considered for development of models and validated for the subsequent three years from 2011-12 to 2013-14. Weatherbased indices were generated, which were used as explanatory variables in development of models. The study reveals that the prediction for crop age at first appearance of pests, crop age at peak population of pests, and maximum population of pests can be issued at least two to three weeks in advance.

Keywords

• Cotton,
• sucking pests
• quantitative models
• weather-based regression model