Geophysical Research Letters (Jul 2020)
Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
- Malcolm John Roberts,
- Joanne Camp,
- Jon Seddon,
- Pier Luigi Vidale,
- Kevin Hodges,
- Benoît Vannière,
- Jenny Mecking,
- Rein Haarsma,
- Alessio Bellucci,
- Enrico Scoccimarro,
- Louis‐Philippe Caron,
- Fabrice Chauvin,
- Laurent Terray,
- Sophie Valcke,
- Marie‐Pierre Moine,
- Dian Putrasahan,
- Christopher D. Roberts,
- Retish Senan,
- Colin Zarzycki,
- Paul Ullrich,
- Yohei Yamada,
- Ryo Mizuta,
- Chihiro Kodama,
- Dan Fu,
- Qiuying Zhang,
- Gokhan Danabasoglu,
- Nan Rosenbloom,
- Hong Wang,
- Lixin Wu
Affiliations
- Malcolm John Roberts
- Met Office Exeter UK
- Joanne Camp
- Met Office Exeter UK
- Jon Seddon
- Met Office Exeter UK
- Pier Luigi Vidale
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading UK
- Kevin Hodges
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading UK
- Benoît Vannière
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading UK
- Jenny Mecking
- Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton University of Southampton Southampton UK
- Rein Haarsma
- Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) De Bilt The Netherlands
- Alessio Bellucci
- Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Bologna Italy
- Enrico Scoccimarro
- Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Bologna Italy
- Louis‐Philippe Caron
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center—Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC) Barcelona Spain
- Fabrice Chauvin
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM‐CERFACS) Toulouse France
- Laurent Terray
- CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse France
- Sophie Valcke
- CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse France
- Marie‐Pierre Moine
- CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse France
- Dian Putrasahan
- Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E.V. (MPI‐M) Hamburg Germany
- Christopher D. Roberts
- European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reading UK
- Retish Senan
- European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reading UK
- Colin Zarzycki
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science Penn State University State College PA USA
- Paul Ullrich
- Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California, Davis Davis CA USA
- Yohei Yamada
- JAMSTEC Tokyo Japan
- Ryo Mizuta
- Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Tsukuba Japan
- Chihiro Kodama
- JAMSTEC Tokyo Japan
- Dan Fu
- Department of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USA
- Qiuying Zhang
- Department of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USA
- Gokhan Danabasoglu
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CA USA
- Nan Rosenbloom
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CA USA
- Hong Wang
- Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM) Qingdao China
- Lixin Wu
- Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM) Qingdao China
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088662
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 47,
no. 14
pp. n/a – n/a
Abstract
Abstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
Keywords