Cumulative effects of marine renewable energy and climate change on ecosystem properties: Sensitivity of ecological network analysis

Abstract

In an increasingly anthropogenic world, the scientific community and managers have to take interactions between the drivers of ecosystems into consideration. Tools like ecological network analysis (ENA) indices offer the opportunity to study those interactions at the ecosystem level. However, ENA indices have never been used to test the incidence of cumulative drivers. The present study uses models combining the effects of (i) the reef caused by the future offshore wind farm of Courseulles-sur-Mer and (ii) climate change on species distribution, to test the response of multiple ENA indices. ENA indices proved sensitive to this cumulative impact, displaying a wide variety of cumulative effects. They were also very powerful to characterize the role of the cumulative impact on ecosystem functioning. These results demonstrate the capacity of ENA indices to describe and understand cumulative effects at the ecosystem scale. Using a sensitivity analysis approach, this study shows that ENA indices could be viable tools for managers. To help them in their tasks, the next step could be to link ecosystem services to ENA indices for a more practical use.

Keywords

• Cumulative impact
• Linear inverse modeling
• Marine renewable energies
• Ecological network analysis
• ENA food web