Distribution of COPD Comorbidities and Creation of Acute Exacerbation Risk Score: Results from SCICP

Abstract

Haiyan Ge,1,* Xuanqi Liu,1,* Wenchao Gu,2 Xiumin Feng,3,4 Fengying Zhang,5 Fengfeng Han,6 Yechang Qian,7 Xiaoyan Jin,8 Beilan Gao,9 Li Yu,10 Hong Bao,11 Min Zhou,12 Shengqing Li,13 Zhijun Jie,14 Jian Wang,15 Zhihong Chen,16 Jingqing Hang,5 Jingxi Zhang,3 Huili Zhu1 1Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine, Pudong New District People’s Hospital, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Changhai Hospital Affiliated to Navy Military Medical University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Changji Branch of First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Respiratory Medicine, Putuo District People’s Hospital, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 6Department of Respiratory Medicine, Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 7Baoshan District Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 8Department of Respiratory Medicine, Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 9Department of Respiratory Medicine, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 10Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 11Department of Respiratory Medicine Shanghai Pudong Hospital, Fudan University Pudong Medical Center, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 12Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 13Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 14Department of Respiratory Medicine, Shanghai Fifth’s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 15Department of Respiratory Medicine, Shanghai Ninth’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 16Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Huili Zhu Email [email protected] Zhang Email [email protected]: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often coexists with multiple comorbidities which may have a significant impact on acute exacerbations of patients. At present, what kind of comorbidities affects acute exacerbations and how comorbidities lead to poor prognosis are still controversial. The purpose of our study is to determine the impact of comorbidities on COPD exacerbation and establish an acute exacerbation risk assessment system related to comorbidities.Methods: A total of 742 COPD patients participated in the Shanghai COPD Investigation on Comorbidity Program (SCICP, ChiCTR2000030911). Finally, the baseline information of 415 participants and one-year follow-up data were involved in the analysis. We collected hemogram indices, pulmonary function tests and acute exacerbation of COPD with regular medical follow-up. Q-type cluster analysis was used to determine the clusters of participants. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was constructed to assess the ability of indicators in predicting acute exacerbations.Results: Almost 65% of the population we investigated had at least one comorbidity. The distribution and incidence of comorbidities differed between exacerbation group and non-exacerbation group. Three comorbidity clusters were identified: (1) respiratory, metabolic, immune and psychologic disease (non-severe cases); (2) cardiovascular and neoplastic disease (severe cases); (3) less comorbidity. Different sub-phenotypes of COPD patients showed significant distinction in health status. Anxiety (OR=5.936, P=0.001), angina (OR=10.155, P=0.025) and hypertension (OR=3.142, P=0.001) were found to be independent risk factors of exacerbation in a year. The novel risk score containing BODEx and four diseases showed great prognostic value of COPD exacerbation in developing sample.Conclusion: Our study detailed the major interaction between comorbidities and exacerbation in COPD. Noteworthily, a novel risk score using comprehensive index – BODEx – and comorbidity parameters can identify patients at high risk of acute exacerbation.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, exacerbation, comorbidity, risk score

Keywords

• chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (copd)
• exacerbation
• comorbidity
• risk score