Impact of Global Climate Change on Climate Data in Ravansar Sanjabi Basin, Kermanshah Province

Abstract

In this study, the effect of climate change on temperature and rainfall data in the Kermanshah Sanjabi basin was investigated. For this purpose, using climate and temperature data from 1979-2005 (observation period), the values ​​of these variables in 2041-2100 (forecast period) were predicted under three scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 and CanESM2 atmospheric general circulation model. The SDSM model was used to fine-tune the survey data in the study area. The results showed that the mean annual precipitation, maximum and minimum annual temperatures in the squared Ravansar basin will increase in the forecast period of 2041-2100. The most predicted values ​​of these variables belong to the RCP8.5 scenario so that according to this scenario, the average increase in precipitation in December, in the forecast periods 2041-2070 and 2071 2100 is 153 and 159.6%, respectively, compared with the average rainfall in the observation period. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that in order to properly manage the water resources of the RWC due to the impact of climate change, a proper perspective on the future status of water resources in the watershed will be presented to water resource managers in the future.

Keywords

• atmospheric general circulation model
• downscale
• global warming
• simulation
• water resources