Fuzzy logic as a Risk-Controlling Instrument in the Context of the Proactive Management of the Oil and Gas Producing Enterprises

Abstract

The article is aimed at finding ways to increase the efficiency of the oil and gas production enterprises (OGPE) in conditions of uncertainty of business environment. The actuality of application of fuzzy logic methods as an instrument of risk controlling within the terms of ensuring the proactive management of the oil and gas producing enterprises is substantiated. The model of the risk-controlling system of the OGPE is improved, which, unlike the existing ones, is supplemented by a cascade fuzzy model of Mamdani type – estimation and prediction of probability of risk occurrence that creates preconditions for the proactive management of enterprise. The model of implementation of risk-controlling system in the system of the proactive management of the ORPE is formed, which is based on the integration of risk-management and risk-controlling systems.

Keywords

• risk controlling
• proactive management
• oil and gas production enterprise
• fuzzy logic