Winter Subseasonal Wind Speed Forecasts for Finland from ECMWF

Abstract

The subseasonal forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) were used to construct weekly mean wind speed forecasts for the spatially aggregated area in Finland. Reforecasts for the winters (November, December and January) of 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 were analysed. The ERA-Interim reanalysis was used as observations and climatological forecasts. We evaluated two types of forecasts, the deterministic forecasts and the probabilistic forecasts. Non-homogeneous Gaussian regression was used to bias-adjust both types of forecasts. The forecasts proved to be skilful until the third week, but the longest skilful lead time depends on the reference data sets and the verification scores used.