Construction and Application of Short-Term and Mid-Term Power System Load Forecasting Model Based on Hybrid Deep Learning

Abstract

Power system load forecasting model plays an important role in all aspects of power system planning, operation and control. Therefore, accurate power load forecasting provides an important guarantee for the stable operation of the power grid system. This paper first analyzes the current status of power system load forecasting, and finds that there are still some deficiencies in the existing forecasting models. In order to make up for these shortcomings, this paper proposes construction of short-term and mid-term power system load forecasting models based on hybrid deep learning. In the data preprocessing part, this paper proposes to use the exponential weight moving average method to process missing values. The detection method of abnormal value is the GeneralizedESDTestAD(GESD). This paper analyzes the historical load data of a regional power grid and four industries, and proposes a short-term power system load forecasting model based on Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory(BiLSTM); For mid-term load forecasting, this paper first uses random forest and Pearson correlation coefficient to select features. Then a hybrid deep learning model is constructed based on BiLSTM and random forest. After optimizing the parameters of the model, a mid-term power system load forecasting model based on hybrid deep learning is constructed. Finally, the benchmark models are selected for comparative experiments. The experimental results show that the MAPE of the proposed model is 2.36%, which is better than the benchmark models. This proves that the proposed hybrid model can effectively improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting.

Keywords

• Hybrid deep learning
• long short-term memory (LSTM)
• power load forecasting
• short-term
• mid-term
• random forest