Predicting the Travel Distance of Patients to Access Healthcare Using Deep Neural Networks

Abstract

Objective: Improving geographical access remains a key issue in determining the sufficiency of regional medical resources during health policy design. However, patient choices can be the result of the complex interactivity of various factors. The aim of this study is to propose a deep neural network approach to model the complex decision of patient choice in travel distance to access care, which is an important indicator for policymaking in allocating resources. Method: We used the 4-year nationwide insurance data of Taiwan and accumulated the possible features discussed in earlier literature. This study proposes the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based framework to make predictions. The model performance was tested against other machine learning methods. The proposed framework was further interpreted using Integrated Gradients (IG) to analyze the feature weights. Results: We successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of using a CNN-based framework to predict the travel distance of patients, achieving an accuracy of 0.968, AUC of 0.969, sensitivity of 0.960, and specificity of 0.989. The CNN-based framework outperformed all other methods. In this research, the IG weights are potentially explainable; however, the relationship does not correspond to known indicators in public health. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate the feasibility of the deep learning-based travel distance prediction model. It has the potential to guide policymaking in resource allocation. Clinical and Translational Impact Statement— Deep learning technology is feasible in investigating the distance that patients would travel while accessing care. It is a tool that integrates complex interactive variables with highly imbalanced data distributions.

Keywords

• Deep neural network
• machine learning
• patient choice
• public health
• policymaking