Analysis of the Predictive Models of Oil and Gas Transportation Ducts' Rehabilitation

Abstract

The actions of the various phenomena of corrosion, mechanical constraints and others, contribute to the degradation of hydrocarbons transportation ducts. The combinations of these phenomena accelerate pipe ageing, and this results in the increase of the frequency of leaks interventions and pipe ruptures. The only way to struggle against the ageing of oil transportation pipelines is the rehabilitation. This will allow the re-servicing of pipes whose resistance characteristics are degraded. One of the major difficulties, during the conception of a pipeline rehabilitation program, is the determination of the specific sections to rehabilitate. Indeed if there is any real risk not to do enough rehabilitation in the one hand, there is a risk to bad rehabilitation on the other. The decision to continue to maintain, renovate or replace some degraded sections of a pipeline is not an easy task, and requires development of forecasting models that will enable decision-makers to take the right decisions on the middle and long term. In this context, this study is devoted to analysis of problems associated with statistical exploitation of controls and repair files of aged pipes, establishing action plans and controlling the ageing of hydrocarbons transportation pipelines.