Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?

Abstract

Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal 850 hPa cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020 using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Based on extensive analysis of atmospheric large-scale circulation patterns combined with nearly 2 million kinematic backward trajectories, we show the origins and contributions of various physical processes to the formation of cold wintertime 850 hPa air masses. The location of the cold anomaly region is closely tied to the location of blocking; if the block is located farther to the east, the cold anomaly is also displaced eastwards. Considering air mass evolution along the trajectories, the air parcels are typically initially (5–10 d before) colder than at their arrival in Europe, but initially warmer air parcels also sometimes lead to cold anomalies over Europe. Most commonly the effect of adiabatic warming on the temperature anomalies is overcompensated for by advection from regions that are climatologically colder than the target region, supported by diabatic cooling along the pathway. However, there are regional differences: cold anomalies over western Europe and southeastern Europe are dominantly caused by advection and over eastern Europe by both advective and diabatic processes. The decadal-scale warming in the site of air mass origin has been partly compensated for by enhanced diabatic (radiative) cooling along the pathway to Europe. There have also been decadal changes in large-scale circulation patterns and air mass origin. Our results suggest that understanding future changes in cold extremes will require in-depth analyses of both large-scale circulation and the physical (adiabatic and diabatic) processes.