Predicting the Risk of Nail Involvement in Psoriasis Patients: Development and Assessment of a Predictive Nomogram

Abstract

Background: Nail involvement has a tremendous impact on psoriasis patients. Early detection and prompt intervention of psoriatic nail damage are necessary. Methods: A total of 4290 patients confirmed to have psoriasis between June 2020 and September 2021 were recruited from the Follow-up Study of Psoriasis database. Among them, 3920 patients were selected and divided into the nail involvement group (n = 929) and the non-nail involvement group (n = 2991) by inclusion and exclusion criteria. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the predictors of nail involvement for the nomogram. Calibration plots, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discriminative and calibrating ability and clinical utility of the nomogram. Results: Sex, age at onset, duration, smoking, drug allergy history, comorbidity, sub-type of psoriasis, scalp involvement, palmoplantar involvement, genital involvement, and PASI score were selected to establish the nomogram for nail involvement. AUROC (0.745; 95% CI: 0.725–0.765) indicated the satisfactory discriminative ability of the nomogram. The calibration curve showed favorable consistency, and the DCA showed the good clinical utility of the nomogram. Conclusion: A predictive nomogram with good clinical utility was developed to assist clinicians in evaluating the risk of nail involvement in psoriasis patients.

Keywords

• psoriasis
• nail psoriasis
• nail involvement
• nomogram
• prediction model