The Runoff in the Upper Taohe River Basin and Its Responses to Climate Change
Lizhen Cheng,
Guoning Wan,
Meixue Yang,
Xuejia Wang,
Yongshan Li
Affiliations
Lizhen Cheng
Yulong Snow Mountain Cryosphere and Sustainable Development Observation and Research Station/State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Guoning Wan
Yulong Snow Mountain Cryosphere and Sustainable Development Observation and Research Station/State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Meixue Yang
Yulong Snow Mountain Cryosphere and Sustainable Development Observation and Research Station/State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Xuejia Wang
Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Yongshan Li
School of Urban and Planning, Yancheng Teachers University, Yancheng 224000, China
Climate change has a significant impact on water resources. Forecasts and simulations of climate runoff processes are essential for assessing the impact of global climate change on runoff variations. This study focuses on the upper Taohe River Basin, which is an important watershed in the semi-arid regions of northwest China. To assess the runoff in the upper Taohe River Basin and the responses to climate change, the SWAT hydrological model was used to analyze future climate change scenarios and their effects on water resources. The results indicate that the minimum temperature would increase gradually in the 21st century and that the minimum temperature change would be more significant than the maximum temperature change, which indicates that minimum temperature changes would make an obvious contribution to future regional warming. Under RCP2.6, the average precipitation would decrease; at the same time, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the average precipitation would increase. In the future, under different climate scenarios, the runoff will exhibit droughts and flood disasters. These research results provide scientific support for water resource utilization and management in the Taohe River Basin.
