Using neural networks to forecast the number of road accidents in Poland taking into account weather conditions

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland depending on weather conditions. For this purpose, monthly data on the number of road accidents in Poland by weather conditions, based on the Police, was analyzed. Based on this data, a forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022–2024 was made in Statistica. Selected neural network models were used to forecast the number of road accidents. The results show that we can still expect a reduction in the number of road accidents, but the prevailing pandemic disturbs the results obtained.

Keywords

• Road accident
• Pandemic
• Forecasting
• Neural networks
• Weather conditions