NUMERICAL MODEL STUDY OF TSUNAMI GENERATED BY POTENTIAL EARTHQUAKE WITHIN THE KOMANDORSKY SEISMIC GAP IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLAND ARC

Abstract

The Komandorsky seismic gap has distinctive boundaries and a length of 650 km. Its period of “seismic silence” comes close to the maximum recurrence interval for great earthquakes in the Aleutian Island Arc - the stress concentration here probably having reached the critical value. So, estimation of possible earthquake and tsunami characteristics within this gap becomes a significant problem. The closest analog of a similar gap is the area where the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman catastrophic event occurred. Thus, for the present study we used the same modeling scheme as we used for that event. It was assumed that a source length of 650 km, consisting of 9 blocks, and an earthquake with a moment magnitude MW=8.5. Several block motion scenarios were considered. The tsunami generation and propagation in the Pacific Ocean and the possible wave characteristics on near and far-field coasts were estimated. Modeling of such an event showed that the wave heights on different Pacific coasts will vary from 3 to 9 meters. A tsunami wave with a 9-meter height is capable in causing significant loss of human life and economic damage.

Keywords

• Komandorsky seismic gap
• seismic forecast
• earthquake source
• tsunami source
• tsunami modeling