Mapping livestock density distribution in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia using random forest

Abstract

Abstract Mapping dynamically distributed livestock in the vast steppe area based on statistical data collected by administrative units is very difficult as it is limited by the quality of statistical data and local geographical environment factors. While, spatial mapping of livestock gridded data is critical and necessary for animal husbandry management, which can be easily integrated and analyzed with other natural environment data. Facing this challenge, this study introduces a spatialization method using random forest (RF) in the Selenge River Basin, which is the main animal husbandry region in Mongolia. A spatialized model was constructed based on the RF to obtain high-resolution gridded distribution data of total livestock, sheep & goats, cattle, and horses. The contribution of factors influencing the spatial distribution of livestock was quantitatively analyzed. The predicted results showed that (1) it has high livestock densities in the southwestern regions and low in the northern regions of the Selenge River Basin; (2) the sheep & goats density was mainly concentrated in 0–125 sheep/km2, and the high-density area was mainly distributed in Khuvsgul, Arkhangai, Bulgan and part soums of Orkhon; (3) horses and cattle density were concentrated in 0–25 head/km2, mainly distributed in the southwest and central parts of the basin, with few high-density areas. This indicates that the RF simulation results effectively depict the characteristics of Selenge River Basin. Further study supported by Geodetector showed human activity was the main driver of livestock distribution in the basin. This study is expected to provide fundamental support for the precise regulation of animal husbandry in the Mongolian Plateau or other large steppe regions worldwide.