Electric short-term load forecast integrated method based on time-segment and improved MDSC-BP

Abstract

In this paper, an integrated forecast method is proposed based on multi-resources data, which improves the maximum deviation similarity criterion (MDSC) of time-segment BP neural network. The existing short-term load forecast methods for power systems will lead to the low accuracy or even failure of the load prediction method since the multi-stage load change and weather fluctuation factors are not considered. The improved similar day category screening method with the time-segment BP neural network model is employed to deal with the above problem in this paper, where a regional load characteristic law is used to divide the load into seven time periods such that a time-segment BP neural network model is proposed. Based on the feature vector and the real-time meteorological data of the forecast day, the trained forecast model can provide the load value of the forecast day and overcome the restriction of the historical load data. Meanwhile, the prediction accuracy and the training time are also improved under the fluctuating meteorological conditions. Finally, a load forecast of a certain area is given to show the prediction accuracy of different types of days can reach more than 96%,illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Keywords

• load forecast
• maximum deviation similarity criterion
• bp neural network