Association of Preoperative Copeptin Levels with Risk of All-Cause Mortality in a Prospective Cohort of Adult Cardiac Surgery Patients

Abstract

We aimed to investigate the association of preoperative copeptin, a new cardiovascular biomarker, with short- and long-term mortality in a cohort of adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery, including its potential as a prognostic marker for clinical outcome. Preoperative blood samples of the Bern Perioperative Biobank, a prospective cohort of adults undergoing cardiac surgery during 2019, were analyzed. The primary and secondary outcome measures were 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality. Optimal copeptin thresholds were calculated with the Youden Index. Associations of copeptin levels with the two outcomes were examined with multivariable logistic regression models; their discriminatory capacity was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC). A total of 519 patients (78.4% male, median age 67 y (IQR: 60–73 y)) were included, with a median preoperative copeptin level of 7.6 pmol/L (IQR: 4.7–13.2 pmol/L). We identified an optimal threshold of 15.9 pmol/l (95%-CI: 7.7 to 46.5 pmol/L) for 30-day mortality and 15.9 pmol/L (95%-CI: 9.0 to 21.3 pmol/L) for 1-year all-cause mortality. Regression models featured an AUROC of 0.79 (95%-CI: 0.56 to 0.95) for adjusted log-transformed preoperative copeptin for 30-day mortality and an AUROC of 0.76 (95%-CI: 0.64 to 0.88) for 1-year mortality. In patients undergoing cardiac surgery, the baseline levels of copeptin emerged as a strong marker for 1-year all-cause death. Preoperative copeptin levels might possibly identify patients at risk for a complicated, long-term postoperative course, and therefore requiring a more rigorous postoperative observation and follow-up.

Keywords

• outcome
• inflammation
• cardiac surgery
• copeptin
• cardiovascular