Prediction of Fish Migration Caused by Ocean Warming Based on SARIMA Model

Abstract

Herring and mackerel are two of the most important pillars of Scottish fisheries. In recent years, global warming has caused a gradual rise in ocean temperatures. In order to survive and reproduce, herring and mackerel populations will migrate. This will have a huge impact on Scotland’s fisheries. Therefore, we need to predict the relocation of fish stocks in advance, make timely adjustments to the fishing range, and minimize the loss of the fishing industry. In this article, we subdivide the research target sea area into 39 regions, establish the optimal SARIMA model for each region based on the collected seawater temperature time series data, and take region 13 and region 15 as examples to fit the ARIMA (3, 3, 1) (1, 2, 1) and ARIMA (2, 3, 1) (0, 2, 1) models with a period of 12. The results show that the SARIMA model fits well in all regions and predicts the temperature changes in the studied sea area from 2021 to 2050. Finally, according to the predicted sea temperature in different periods, the migration position of the fish school is predicted.